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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|