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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Older Team Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test side being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a much more significant change with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what new injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a history of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that change a-coming, coming around the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.